消费信贷与居民收入水平对经济发展影响差异性研究——基于29个省份的面板数据分析

A Study on the Differences of Consumption Credit and Residents’ Income Levels on Economic Development——Based on panel data analysis in 29 provinces

供给侧结构性改革的根本目的是提高社会生产力水平,需以需求为导向,不同区域的导向特征不同。基于中国东、中、西部的发展特点,建立PVAR模型对比研究消费信贷和居民工资收入水平对东、中、西三个区域经济发展水平影响的差异。研究结果表明,消费信贷对于促进不同地区的经济发展均起到了正面作用,且在短期中呈现出比收入水平更为有效的刺激经济发展的作用,但同时也存在明显区域差异。因此,应有针对性地引导不同类型消费的发展,因地制宜的实施符合不同区域经济发展特色的信贷政策,设定适宜的消费信贷类型和价格水平。供给侧改革应与消费信贷相结合,沿循消费信贷的资金流向和导向,从而实现党十九大报告强调的提高供给体系质量和培育中高端消费,达到供给和需求的共同提升。

The fundamental purpose of supply-side structural reform is to improve the level of social productivity. It needs to be demand-oriented, and the orientation characteristics of different regions are different. Based on the development characteristics of China＇s eastern, central and western regions, the PVAR model was established to compare the differences in the impact of consumer credit and resident wage income on the economic development levels of the three regions of East, Central and West. The research results show that consumer credit plays a positive role in promoting economic development in different regions, and in the short-term, it is more effective than the income level to stimulate economic development, but there are also obvious regional differences. Therefore, it is necessary to guide the development of different types of consumption in a targeted manner, and implement a credit policy that suits the characteristics of different regional economic developments according to local conditions, and set appropriate types of consumer credit and price levels. The supply-side reform should be combined with consumer credit, along with the flow and direction of consumer credit, so as to achieve the improvement of the supply system and the cultivation of high-end consumption, which is emphasized by the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, to achieve a common improvement in supply and demand.