基于GIS-CA-Markov的白马河流域土地利用变化模拟分析

Simulation of Land Use Change in Baimahe Basin Based on GIS-CA-Markov Method

土地利用/覆被变化的预测模拟研究对探索土地利用变化的规律与方向,实现可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。以济宁市白马河流域为例,以不同时期的Landsat TM遥感影像为数据源,首先利用CA-Markov模型对2010年和2015年白马河流域的土地利用进行预测并检验其模拟精度,在较适宜的尺度条件下预测研究区2020年的土地利用分类。结果表明:对2015年白马河流域实际土地利用图与预测图进行Kappa系数一致性检验,模拟精度较高为0.9121,表明预测与实际几乎完全一致。2005—2020年,白马河流域建设用地和水域增加,建设用地增加最明显,增加了89.04%;耕地、林地、草地和未利用地减少,草地减少最明显,减少了31.06%。2020年白马河流域土地利用变化的预测研究结果可以为该区土地利用/覆被动态监测和可持续发展提供依据。

It was of great significance to study the land use/cover change on the regular pattern and directions of land use change and sustainable development. Taking the Baimahe Basin as an example in this study,Landsat TM images at different times were used as data sources. The CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use/cover change of 2010 and 2015 respectively and tested the simulation precision. And the land use classification of the study area in 2020 was simulated under the more suitable simulation scale conditions. The results showed as follows： The Kappa coefficient was used to test the consistency between the actual land use map and the predicted map of 2015 with a high precision of 0. 9121,indicating a high consistency between prediction and reality. Construction land and water area increased,and cultivated land,forest land,grassland and unused land decreased in the Baimahe Basin during 2005-2020. The construction land increased the most significantly,increased by 89. 04%,grassland decreased the most obviously decreased by 31. 06%. It was concluded that the prediction results of land use change of the Baimahe Basin could provide a basis for the dynamic monitoring of land use/cover change as well as the sustainable development of the region in 2020.