重庆直辖以来的能源消费特征及影响因素研究

Study on Energy Consumption Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Chongqing Since Municipality

利用1997—2016年重庆的能源消费、经济、产业、人口等数据,从纵横向对重庆能源消费状况进行比较分析,构建岭回归模型,对重庆能源消费总量的影响因素进行研究。分析发现,重庆的能源消费总量稳步增长,煤炭消费所占比重有所降低,能源消费结构趋向多元化与合理化;能源消费强度有所降低且低于全国平均水平;第二产业终端能源消费比重较高,主要集中在化学原料及其制品制造业,非金属矿物制品业,电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业。岭回归模型分析显示,能源利用效率、第三产业比重、城镇化率、试验发展(R&D)经费内部支出对其有显著影响。为了控制能源消费增长,重庆亟待调整能源消费结构,优化产业结构,走新型城镇化道路,并挖掘建筑节能和交通节能潜力,继续加大R&D经费支出力度等。

Based on the data of energy consumption,economy,industry and population in Chongqing from 1997 to 2016,this paper compared and analyzed the state of energy consumption in Chongqing from vertical and horizontal directions,and constructed the Ridge regression model to study the influencing factors of total energy consumption in Chongqing. First of all,the analysis results showed that,with the rapid growth of Chongqing＇s economy,the total amount of energy consumption in Chongqing had steadily increased,and the proportion of coal consumption was decreased,and the energy consumption structure tended to be diversified and rationalized,the energy consumption intensity was gradually reduced,and was lower than the national average. The proportion of terminal energy consumption in the secondary industry was relatively high,and energy consumption was concentrated in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing,non-metallic mineral products industry,electric power,gas and water production and supply industries. What＇s more,the analysis of influencing factors by using the ridge regression model showed that energy efficiency,the proportion of tertiary industry,urbanization rate,and internal expenditure of experimental development（ RD） all had the significant impact on energy consumption in Chongqing. Finally,in order to control the growth of energy consumption,Chongqing urgently should need to adjust the energy consumption structure,and optimize the industrial structure,and continue to take the road of new urbanization,and excavate the potential of building energy conservation and transportation energy conservation,and continue to increase the experimental development（ RD） expenditure and so on.