经济全球化未来发展的动力、阻力与中国作用

The Motive Force,Resistance and China's Role in the Future Development of Economic Globalization

近几年,反经济全球化思潮泛起,并被一些国家付诸于具体的行动,引起人们对经济全球化未来发展的忧虑。当前,经济全球化发展遇阻与世界经济格局的调整密切相关,未来推动经济全球化发展的主要力量,一是科技进步,二是中国力量。阻力则主要来自:美国从经济全球化的前沿后退,国际公共产品提供不足;主要国家的政治意愿不强,难以达成高层次的国际经济合作;现有国际组织难以有效发挥作用,彼此之间合作不力。未来经济全球化的中美"双头"模式可能存在很长一段时间,前提是中美之间不发生激烈对抗;中国要在维护既有国际经济制度稳定的前提下争取制度性权利,围绕共同的利益关切点推动国际经济合作。

The antiglobalization trend has risen and been adopted into some coutries＇ policy-making practice in recent years,which has drawn worldwide concern towards future of economic globalization. This trend is closely connected to current adjusting of world economic structure. We believe that two most important forces in pushing forward the economic globalization would be the technological advancement and the rise of China in the coming years. Meanwhile,there would also be two major obsticles for economic globalization.Firstly,America is stepping back from the leading position of globalization,leaving the situation of international public good shortage. Secondly,most standing international organizations are not acting effectively and it is difficult to achieve high-level international economic cooperation. A duopoly model including both China and America as the leaders of economic globalization would last for quite a while,but the precondition is that these two countries could not fight with each other fiercely. China should get hold of more institutionalized power during generally keeping the existing international economic system,and to put forward international economic cooperation with commonly-concerned interests taken into consideration.