预售模式下基于策略型消费者退货行为的运费险决策研究

Study on Freight Insurance Decision Making with Consideration of Strategic Consumer Returns in the Pre-Sale

基于消费者的策略行为,构建关于退货运费险的数学对比模型,研究在消费者估值不确定条件下报童型零售商的预售策略和退货运费险决策问题,得到最优预售折扣系数和最优退款额。通过Matlab数值仿真发现:无论零售商是否给预购消费者购买退货运费险,其最优退款额都等于产品的单位成本,然而购买退货运费险,可以制定一个更高的预售价,并且减小库存风险;只有在退货运费处于非常小的范围内时,零售商购买运费险可能会为其带来损失,但是在大部分情况下,购买运费险会给零售商带来巨大收益。

Based on the consumer＇s strategic behavior, this paper builds a matnemancal contrast model about the return freight insurance, studies the pre-sale strategy and the decision-making of the return freight insurance of the newsvendor retailer under the uncertainty of the consumer＇s valuation, and obtains the optimal discount coefficient and the optimal refund. The following conclusions are ob- tained through the numerical simulation with Matlah that whether the retailer buys the return freight insurance for the advance consumers, the optimal refund equals to the unit cost of the products. And after buying freight insurance, the retailer can set a higher advance price and reduce the inventory risk. Only when the return freight is within a very small range, the retailer＇s purchase of freight in- surance may cause losses, but in most cases, purchase will bring a huge profit to the retailer.