昆明市手足口病病原监测及气候对手足口病发病影响研究

The etiology monitoring of HFMD and the effects of climate on HFMD

目的监测昆明市手足口病病原学并分析气候对病情的影响,为手足口病防控提供依据。方法收集2010-2017年昆明市年平均气温及降雨量变化情况,监测手足口病病原,分析气候变化与手足口病发病间关系。结果2010-2017年昆明市手足口病病例数(发病率)分别为17 717例(294.173 8/10万),12 243例(190.339 1/10万),18 260例(282.539 6/10万),15 416例(237.048 2/10万),24 142例(369.487 8/10万),19 912例(302.988 3/10万),20 235例(303.055 3/10万),14 347例(213.243/10万)。手足口病周发病数与气候条件相关因素分析中周平均气温呈正相关(P<0.01),与平均相对湿度、平均风速、降水量和日照时数未见相关性。EV71和CA16是昆明市手足口病发病患者感染常见病原体。结论温度变化会引起手足口病发病人数变化,积极控制肠道病毒EV71和CA16传播可以有效控制手足口病流行。

Objectives To monitor the etiology of hand,foot,and mouth disease（HFMD）in Kunming and to analyze the effects of climate on HFMD in order to provide a basis for prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Data on the annual mean temperature and rainfall variation in Kunming were collected from 2010-2017 to monitor the etiology of HFMD and analyze the relationship between climate and the occurrence of HFMD. Results There were 17 717 cases of HFMD（294.1738/100 000）in 2010 in Kunming,12 243（190.3391/100 000）in 2011,18 260（282.539 6/100 000）in2012,15 416（237.048 2/100 000）in 2013,24 142（369.487 8/100 000）in 2014,19 912（302.988 3/100 000）in 2015,20 235（303.055 3/100 000）in 2016,and 14 347（213.243/100 000）in 2017.The relationship between the weekly number of cases of HFMD and meteorological factors was analyzed.Results indicated that the weekly number of HFMD cases was correlated with the average weekly temperature（P〈0.01）but not with the average relative humidity,average wind speed,precipitation,or hours of sunshine.In Kunming,HFMD was often caused by EV71 and CA16. ConclusionTemperature differences resulted in differing prevalence of HFMD,and actively controlling the transmission of EV71 and CA16 could effectively control outbreaks of HFMD.