基于DEMATEL-BN的海洋平台泄漏脆弱性动态分析

DEMATEL-BN based dynamic analysis of vulnerability of offshore platforms to leakage

为预防海洋平台泄漏引发的连锁事件,运用基于决策试验与评估实验室（DEMATEL）及贝叶斯网络（BN）的集成方法动态分析泄漏演化脆弱性风险。构建脆弱性风险指标体系,利用DEMATEL方法研究风险因素之间的相互影响;建立海洋平台泄漏连锁风险演化模型,并转化为对应的BN模型,引入事故先兆数据,动态分析发生局部燃烧爆炸A、连锁火灾爆炸B、小型油气泄漏C和大型油气泄漏D等事故的概率。结果表明：组织管理因素易影响其他风险因素;海洋平台发生A、B和D等严重事故的概率随运行年限增加而增大;DEMATEL-BN方法克服静态风险分析方法不能有效利用运行数据的不足,实现海洋平台风险的动态分析。

To prevent accidents induced by leakage from offshore platforms,an integrated method based on DEMATEL-BN was worked out for performing a dynamic and accurate vulnerability assessment. Threelevel indicators were established to identify factors,events and subsystems that may lead to leakage,fire,and explosion. Interactions among the factors influencing the development of accidents were analyzed using DEMATEL. A sequential model was built for describing the escalation from initial events to small-scale fire and explosion A,large-scale fire and explosion B,small-scale leakage C,and large-scale leakage D. The model was converted into a BN to dynamically calculate the posterior probabilities of accidents with the introduction of accident precursor data. The results show that the factors related to organizational management are apt to influence other factors,and the probabilities of severe accidents will increase with time,and that the proposed method overcomes the limitations of traditional methods that cannot utilize theoperational data on platforms,and can be used to dynamically evaluate risks in offshore platforms.