水资源承载力关键驱动因素识别研究

Identification of key driving factors of water resources carrying capacity

水资源承载力关键驱动因素的识别是进行水资源承载能力评价和预警工作的基础依据,是开展定量评价水资源承载能力的重要基础.提出了水资源承载能力影响因素有效识别和关键驱动因子评估框架,从水量、水质、水生态、社会经济四个角度,将DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)方法和主成分分析法相结合,从定性与定量两个方面开展水资源承载力影响因素的有效识别,并采用熵权法提取关键驱动因素.研究结果表明:全国水资源承载力关键驱动因素分别是干旱指数、万元GDP用水量、氨氮排放量、湿地占比、城市污水处理率、COD排放量、大中型水库蓄水量.研究成果以期为水资源承载能力有效评价提供科学依据,推动水资源承载能力监测预警机制建设.

The identification of the key drivers of water resources carrying capacity is the basis for the evaluation and early warning of water resources carrying capacity,and is important basis for carrying out quantitative analysis of the carrying capacity of water resources.An effective identification and assessment framework for water resources carrying capacity is proposed in this study.By applying the DEMATEL（Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory）method and principal component analysis method,this study intends to identify the factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity from both qualitative and quantitative aspects.Additionally,the entropy weight method is adopted to determine the key drivers.The results show that the key driving factors are drought index,water consumption per 10000 GDP,emission of ammonia and nitrogen,proportion of wetland,treatment rate of domestic sewage,emission of COD,water storage of large and medium-sized reservoirs.The results of this study could provide basis for effective evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,and promote the construction of monitoring and warning mechanism of water resources carrying capacity.