出口产品多样性与汇率制度选择

Diversity of Export Products and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes

本文搜集并整理了1995年到2010年114个国家的跨国面板数据,运用离散因变量模型,发现出口产品多样性高的国家倾向于实施浮动汇率制,出口产品多样性低的国家倾向于实施固定汇率制,这与传统的最优货币区理论相悖。进一步研究表明,出口产品多样性低的国家,其与世界经济协动性高,倾向于实施固定汇率制;出口产品多样性高的国家,其与世界经济协动性低,倾向于实施浮动汇率制。殖民者早期的移民死亡率对当前国家的出口产品多样性具有重要影响。

This paper collects the annual panel data of 114 countries from 1995 to 2010. By using ordered logit model,we find that countries with high diversity of export products favor flexible exchange rate regimes while countries with low diversity of export products tend to peg,which contradicts the conventional theory of optimum currency areas. This study further shows that countries with less diversified of export products are more synchronized with the world economy,so they are more inclined to choose a peg. While countries with more diversified of export products and thus less synchronized with the world economy accordingly are more prone to foster flexible regimes. ＂Neo-Europe ＂ countries and non-colonial countries,however,are now more diversified of export products and thus less synchronized with the world economy,accordingly they are more prone to foster flexible regimes.