供需两侧视角下江苏省经济增长动力转换分析

Analysis on the transformation of economic growth in Jiangsu province from the perspective of supply and demand

江苏经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,正处在转换增长动力的关键时期。基于总供给与总需求视角,江苏经济增长新旧动力正在接续转换。文章从供需两侧分析江苏经济增长动力转换。供给侧的要素投入面临瓶颈,表现在人口红利减弱、土地资源制约突出、高资本形成率难以维持;但人力资本积累与自主创新能力增强则有效地提升了要素配置与使用效率。需求侧的传统投资与出口减弱;但中高端消费升级引导投资结构进一步优化。未来江苏应充分把握消费、投资与出口等需求结构的优化升级机遇,促进要素资源的高效使用,扩大有效和中高端供给,从而进一步释放消费潜力、拓展投资空间、提升出口能力。通过提高供给体系对需求结构变化的适应性与灵活性,更好地实现供需动态平衡,形成新的经济增长动力。

Jiangsu＇ s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage and it＇ s at a critical period of shifting its growth drivers. From the perspective of supply and demand, the new and old drivers of Jiangsu＇ s economy are continuing to be transformed. This paper studies the economic growth driver＇ s transformation in Jiangsu on both sides of supply and demand. On the supply side, the input scale of production factor is faced with bottleneck, which is manifested in the weakening of the demographic dividend, the prominent restriction of the land resources and the difficulty of maintaining the high capital formation rate. But the accumulation of human capital and the improvement of self-innovation ability promote the efficiency of factor allocation and application effectively. On the demand side, the driving force of investment and export is weakened, but the investment structure is further optimized by the guidance of middle-and-high-end consumption. In the future, Jiangsu should fully grasp the opportunities of optimization and upgrading of consumption, investment and export structure on the demand side, promote efficient use of supply side factor resources, expand effective and middle-and-high-end supply, improve the adaptability and flexibility of the supply system to changes in demand structure, in order to better achieve the dynamic balance between supply and demand, and create a new impetus for economic growth.