基于AHP-云模型的铁路隧道突水危险性综合评价

Comprehensive Assessment on Water Inrush Hazard of Railway Tunnel Based on AHP-Cloud Model

铁路隧道工程突水危险性评价是施工中的重要安全措施,受评价因子模糊性特征的影响,提出多因素突水危险性的云模型理论综合评价方法,提高评价的综合性和可靠性。在调研分析影响隧道突水灾害的风险因素集的基础上,选取了13个评价因素,确定各因素突水风险评语集,建立了层次分析法(AHP)确定因素权重的突水危险性综合评价云模型。并以尖峰山隧道工程为例,进行该隧道工程的突水危险性评价。研究结果表明:基于AHP-云模型的隧道突水风险综合评价方法,可以充分利用定性和定量的样本信息,系统直观地表现出隧道突水风险评价因素的特征,为多指标模糊因素的评价提供一种有效的方法;选取尖峰山隧道不同里程的10个样本为研究对象,通过AHP-云模型正向云发生器,获得各因子对不同风险等级的隶属度,结合综合评语云模型和综合确定度计算值得出隧道突水风险评价结论。

Risk assessment of water inrush in railway tunnel is an important safety measure in construction. Influenced by fuzzy characteristics of evaluation factors, and to improve the comprehensiveness and reliability of evaluation, put forward a comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model theory. Based on the investigation and analysis of inrush factors which can result in water inrush into tunnels, selects 13 evaluation factors, identify the comment set of water inrush risk evaluation about each factors, using AHP to determine the weight of each factors, and then established a comprehensive evaluation cloud model for water inrush risk. Taking the Jianfengshan runnel project as an example, and develop a water inrush hazard assessment for it. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation of water inrush risk method based on AHP- cloud model can make full application of the qualitative and quantitative information, show the characteristics of tunnel water inrush risk factors directly, provide a kind of effective evaluation method for fuzzy factors with multi index; selected 10 samples with different mileages of Jianfengshan tunnel as the research object, using the normal generator of cloud model, obtain the membership of each factors＇ risk levels, making the conclusion of the tunnel water inrush risk assessment based on the comprehensive evaluation cloud model and the comprehensive determination calculation.