财政分权对金融分权的影响——基于信贷的视角

The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on Financial Decentralization: From a View of Bank Credit

财政分权和金融分权在中国经济的高速发展中起到了关键作用,探究二者的关系具有很强的现实意义。通过构建一个包含中央政府和地方政府的两阶段动态博弈模型进行理论分析,发现若中央政府不进行金融管制,地方政府自发行为会使全国信贷总规模大于最优水平。利用31个省(自治区、直辖市)数据进行了实证研究,结果表明,财政分权对金融分权有显著的促进作用,且其作用存在空间和时间差异。空间上,财政分权对东部地区金融分权无显著影响,对中部地区有抑制作用,对西部地区有促进作用;时间上,金融危机后财政分权对金融分权的促进作用大于金融危机前。存款量和经济规模对金融分权亦有显著的促进作用。经济增长和转移支付则对金融分权无显著影响。实证研究还发现,地区特性和年度效应显著影响财政分权对金融分权的影响力。

Fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization play important roles in China＇s rapid economic growth,so it has strong significance in reality to explore the relationship between them. This paper builds a two-period dynamic game model including a central government and local governments,and find that if central government doesn＇t regulate finance,local governments will expand the size of loan to an extent beyond optimum. This paper also does empirical analysis based on China＇s provincial panel data. The empirical studies show that： fiscal decentralization promotes financial decentralization significantly and the effects differ in area and time. Fiscal decentralization doesn＇t influence financial decentralization significantly in the east of China. However,it has negative impact in the middle of China and positive impact in the west of China. The impact of fiscal decentralization on financial decentralization after the financial crisis is huger than that before the financial crisis. The sizes of loan and economy also have significantly positive impact on financial decentralization. Economic growth and transfer don＇t have significant impact on financial decentralization. The empirical studies also show that the characters of area and time have significant influence on fiscal decentralization＇s impact on financial decentralization.