基于灰色灾变预测模型的农业旱灾社会风险预警研究

Agricultural Drought and Social Risk Early Warning Research Based on Grey Disaster Prediction Model

依据指标选取原则,综合农业旱灾对经济、社会、生态等多方面的影响,构建了农业旱灾社会风险评价指标体系。通过对2006—2016年农业旱灾社会风险相关指标数据的模糊综合评判,确定了在评估11年内的模糊合成均值,利用模糊综合评判得到的结果——相对农业旱灾社会风险值作为分析的原始数据,运用GM(1,1)灰色灾变预测模型,对2018—2028年农业旱灾社会风险较高(社会风险值大于0.5)的年份进行预测,结果显示:未来农业旱灾社会风险值超过0.5的有3个灾变年份,即2018—2019年、2021—2022年、2026—2027年。针对研究结果,提出以下建议:运用农业科技,减少灾害损失;风险较大年份,进行提前防御;普及灾害知识,加强民众自救。

According to the principle of index selection , i ntegrating agricultural drought influences on economic , social and ecological aspects , theagricultural drought social risk evaluation index system was constructed. Based on agricultural drought risk of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation ,fuzzy synthetic mean in 11 years was determined,using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluaricultural drought risk society value as original data,using GM （1,1） grey disaster prediction model,11 years of 2018-2018 for the future agri-cultural drought higher risk society （ social risk is greater than 0. 5） for predicting the year, the conclusion shows the future of agricultural drought risk society value more than 0. 5 have 3 years of reckoning,that is 2018-2019, 2the following countermeasures were proposed ： use agricultural technolog to reduce disaster losses ; advance deularize disaster knowledge and strengthen public assistance.