基于模糊综合评判的山东省水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Shandong province based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

水资源承载力是社会经济稳定发展所能支撑的最大可利用的水资源。在对山东省水资源现状进行调查和统计的基础上,选取人均水资源量、水资源利用率、供水模数、降雨量,人均GDP、人口密度、人均生活用水量、万元GDP用水量、万元工业产值用水量、万元农业产值用水量,耕地灌溉率、生态环境用水率、森林覆盖率共13个主要影响区域水资源承载力的因素作为评价因子,应用模糊综合评判模型对山东水资源承载力现状进行评价。结果表明:山东省水资源综合评价结果 a值在2001—2009年间低于0.6,2010—2015年间高于0.6,表明山东省水资源承载力总体得到了提高;另外2001—2015年间,大部分年份的a值小于0.6,个别年份低于0.4,年际变化相对较大,可见山东省水资源承载力水平总体较弱,年际变化较大。

Water resources carrying capacity is the maximum available water resources supporting by the social and economic development. Based on the investigation and statistics on the current situation of water resources in Shandong Province, this paper selects 13 evaluation factors including per capita water resources, water resources utilization, water supply modulus, rainfall, per capita GDP, population density, per capita water consumption, water consumption per million yuan, the water consumption of industrial output value, the agricultural output value of farmland, the irrigation rate of cultivated land, the water consumption rate of ecological environment and the forest coverage rate, which are the main factors on influencing the bearing capacity of regional water resources. Then, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to analyze the water resources carrying capacity force status evaluation. The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources in Shandong Province were lower than 0.6 in 2001-2009 and higher than 0.6 in 2010-2015, indicating that the water resources carrying capacity of Shandong Province had been improved. In addition, in most of the years values were less than 0.6; some years values were below 0.4; the interannual changes were relatively large. The level of water resources was generally weak; the interannual changes were great in Shandong Province.