面向维修差错的民航不安全事件风险分析

Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation Unsafe Events for Maintenance Error

针对民航中维修差错引发不安全事件的风险问题,根据不安全事件的独立性与偶然性,将历年数据平均化得到发生频率,设定严重程度,分析安全风险图中事件的特点;考虑到由维修差错诱发的民航不安全事件具有小样本的特点,采用Bootstrap方法扩大样本量,对不安全事件与事件率进行线性回归分析,得出影响程度较高的事件类型;构建影响程度较高事件类型的人为因素映射,提出相关应对措施。量化维修差错对民航不安全事件的影响,对于系统认识、识别维修差错及提高民航安全水平具有重要意义。

In response to the risk of unsafe incidents arising frommaintenance error in civil aviation , according to the inde-pendence and contingency of events, the frequency of event data over the past years is averaged, and the severity is set at the same time. The characteristics of the events in the security risk map are analyzed, considering that tlie civil aviation unsafe inci-dents caused by maintenance error have the characteristics of small samples, the Bootstrap metliod is used to expand the sample size and then the linear regression relationship of tlie unsafe incidents and incidents rate is analyzed in order to get tlie types of in-cidents witli higher incidence. Apragmatic mapping of human factors of the event types with higher incidence is made and related countermeasures are issued. Analysis of the causes of maintenance error and quantifying taviation unsafe incidents are of great significance for understanding the system and iving the safety level of civil aviation.