中国近年来人口出生率波动规律初探

A Study of China's Birth Rate Volatility Rule in Recent Years

近年来中国人口出生率波动呈现出一定的时空规律。根据出生率与相关解释变量之间表现出来的相关性差异对近年来人口出生率波动阶段予以划分,并就出生率随时间波动的宏微观影响因素展开分析,运用岭回归模型揭示中国出生率波动的时间规律。同时利用面板模型,收集29个省、市、自治区1990~2012年面板数据对出生率近年来的影响因素及程度差异进行研究,进一步探讨中国人口出生率波动的空间规律,并在此基础上面向未来人口改革提出政策建议。

The study starts with the temporal and spatial volatility rule of China＇s birth rate in recent years,adopting ridge regression model to divide the stages of birth rate＇s fluctuation according to the discrepancies of correlation between birth rate and related independent variables,then further the analysis of macro and micro factors affecting the volatility of the birth rate and reveal the temporal volatility rule of China＇s birth rate.In the meantime,the research about differences of influencing factors and degree on birth rate among 29 regions is carried out by constructing apanel for 29 regions between1990 and 2012,based on which the appropriate suggestions will be proposed to further the reform on fertility policies and supporting mechanisms.