五阳电厂变压器绝缘故障预测技术与应用

Insulation Fault Prediction Technology and Application of Transformer in Wuyang Power Plant

供电技术的发展,对电力变压器的可靠性也提出了更高的要求。由于变压器结构复杂,容易发生故障,需要一种故障预测方法来确保其运行可靠。本文利用变压器油中溶解气体与故障之间的联系,建立了GM(1,1)模型来预测H_2、CH_4、C_2H_2、C_2H_4和C_2H_6的含量,再根据"三比值法"进行计算,以此来判断变压器绝缘故障,预测结果与实际检测结果基本一致。

With the development of power supply technology,higher requirements have been put forward for the reliability of power transformers.Because the transformer structure is complex and it is prone to failure,a fault prediction method is needed to ensure the reliability of operation.In this paper,a GM（1,1） model was established to predict the contents of H_2,CH_4,C_2H_2,C_2H_4 and C_2H_6,based on the relation between dissolved gas and failure in transformer oil,and then the calculation was carried out according to the ＂three-ratio method＂,so as to judge the insulation failure of transformer.The prediction results are in agreement with the actual test results.