广东农村贫困变动及分解效应研究

Study on rural poverty change and decomposition effect in Guangdong province

基于2000—2014年广东农村五等份居民收入分组数据,采用GQ模型和Beta模型拟合洛伦兹曲线,分别计算绝对贫困线下和相对贫困线下广东农村居民的贫困规模,进而采用三因素Shapley值分解方法实证分析进入21世纪以来经济增长、收入分配及贫困线变动对贫困变动的影响作用。结果表明,以相对贫困线对广东农村贫困规模进行测度更为合理;经济增长在2000—2014年间对减贫一直起正向作用;收入分配在不同时期对贫困减少起不同作用,2000—2004年收入分配不利于贫困减少,2005—2014年收入分配结构改善,对减贫起着正向作用;贫困线变动则一直对减贫起负向作用,物价变动和生活成本的提高抵消了经济增长和收入分配结构改善的大部分减贫成效,阻碍了广东农村减贫的进程。由此,要持续改善收入分配结构,维持广东经济的稳定增长,抑制通货膨胀,才有助于广东解决相对贫困问题,实现全面建成小康社会的目标。

Based on 2000-2014 Guangdong rural income grouped data in five slices,by using the GQ model and the Beta model fitting the Lorenz curve and calculated the absolute poverty line and the relative poverty line＇s poverty scale of rural residents in Guangdong respectively,the paper adopted three factors Shapley value decomposition method to analyze the impact of economic growth,income distribution and poverty line variation on poverty changes since entering the 21 st century. The results showed that it was more reasonable to measure the poverty scale of Guangdong countryside by relative poverty line. Economic growth had been positive for poverty reduction from2000 to 2014;Income distribution had different effect on poverty reduction in different periods,during 2000-2004,income distribution was not conducive to poverty reduction,during 2005-2014,the income distribution structure improved and played an positive role in poverty reduction. Poverty line variation had a negative effect on poverty reduction,price changes and the rising cost of living offset much of the improvement of poverty reduction brought by economic growth and income distribution structure improved,hindering the process of Guangdong rural poverty reduction. Thus,improving income distribution structure,maintaining the steady growth of economy and curbing inflation in Guangdong can play a promoting role in solving the relative poverty problem and achieving the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.