个人所得税改革对居民消费的影响研究

A study on the impact of personal income tax Reform on resident consumption

基于凯恩斯消费模型,研究2011年个人所得税改革对我国居民消费水平的影响。使用固定效应模型对全国31个省级面板数据研究发现,个人所得税对居民消费有抑制作用,2011年个税改革减轻了居民税收负担,有效刺激了居民消费;稳健性检验中进一步发现,2011年税改对城镇居民消费影响较小。最后,在研究基础上对下一轮个人所得税改革给出了积极的政策建议。

Based on Keynesian consumption Model,This paper studies the impact of personal income tax reform on the consumption level of Chinese residents in 2011. The fixed effect model is used to study the 31 provincial panel data in China. It is found that the personal income tax has a restraining effect on the residentsundefined consumption,and the income tax reform in 2011 lightens the tax burden of the residents and effectively stimulates the residentsundefined consumption. The robustness test further found that the tax reform in 2011 had little effect on the consumption of urban residents. Finally,on the basis of the research,the author gives positive policy recommendations for the next round of personal income tax reform.