房地产业与经济发展脱钩研究

Study on the Decoupling of Real Estate and Economic Development

自2008年房改以来,房地产业作为国民经济的重要行业,经历了起步、快速发展、随后又经历了限制发展和鼓励发展交替发展的状态。本文研究了1998-2016年中国东、中、西部31个省级行政区域房地产业发展与经济发展的脱钩情况,并计算了这19年间的平均脱钩指标。结构显示:1998-2016年间,一些省份与经济发展脱钩情况严重,但是19年间房地产业和经济发展整体脱钩情况不太明显,31个省份中14个省份处于扩张负脱钩状态,17个省份处于增长连接状态,且脱钩指标值均大于1,说明房地产业整体仍然是拉动经济发展的行业。

Since the real estate reform in 2008, as an important industry of national economy, real estate experienced the initial stage and the rapid development stage, and it then entered the state of restricting the development and encouraging the development alternately. This paper mainly studies the decoupling of real estate development and economic development in 31 provincial-level administrative regions in eastern, central and west China from 1998 to 2016.The Result shows that during 1998-2016, in some provinces the real estate industry and economic development is on severe decoupling level, but as a whole the real estate industry and economic development situation of decoupling is not obvious,and 14 provinces in the 31 provinces are in the expansion of negative decoupling state, and 17 provinces are in growth connection state and the decoupling index is greater than 1, explaining that the real estate industry still pulls the economic development of the industry as a whole.