李鸿章与何如璋的“球案”三策

The Three Strategic Moves Advanced by Li Hongzhang and He Ruzhang Regarding “the Status Issue of Ryukyu Kingdom”

光绪初年,清政府与日本围绕琉球国运("球案")展开斗争。一开始,清政府对琉球事务漠不关心,致使日本步步推进吞并计划。在事态公开化之后,面对极为不利的被动状态,清政府也未采取积极有效的应对措施来解决争端。在驻日公使何如璋提出解决琉球国运的上、中、下三策中,李鸿章认为日本已有铁甲舰而中国尚没有与之相当的海军实力而采用其中的下策,即只进行言语交涉而不采取切实行动,导致琉球被日本吞并。"球案"是晚清中日外交与发展的分水岭。日本通过此案摸准清政府处理外交问题的脉搏,遂制造朝鲜问题等以扩张实力,而清政府虽然实现建设强大海军目的,拥有"遍地球一等铁甲船",终因其他方面建设不能与海军装备的建设同步而在甲午海战中战败。

In the early years of the reign of Emperor Guangxu of the Qing Dynasty, the Qing government was engaged in a bitter dispute with Japan over the status issue of Ryukyu Kingdom. At first, the Qing government was indifferent to Ryukyuan affairs, prompting Japan to take bolder steps towards annexing the island kingdom. After the situation flared up, the Qing government did not take active and effective measures to change the extremely unfavorable and passive circumstances it had been plunged into. Among the three strategic moves proposed by He Ruzhang, then Chinese Resident Diplomatic Minister in Tokyo, Li Hongzhang adopted the worst one, arguing that Japan had ah＇eady had iron-armored warships whose naval strength China had yet to rival. The Qing government did not resort to any concrete moves in its disputes with Japan other than verbal diplomatic negotiations or protests, resulting in the quick annexation of Ryukyu by Japan. This case can be viewed as a watershed event in the diplomatic relations between China and Japan in the late Qing Dynasty. Through this case, Japan knew the ropes of the Qing government＇ s handling of diplomatic issues and further created the Korean issue in order to expand its strength. Although the Qing government did one day achieve its goal of building a powerful navy, it suffered crushing defeats in its subsequent wars with Japan due to its ineapacity to match the progress of its navy facilities with the development on all other fi＇onts.