基于模糊层次分析法的区域雷电风险评估方法研究

Research on Regional Lightning Risk Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

科学合理的雷电灾害风险评估能有效指导防雷减灾工作,传统雷电风险评估方法对于因素模糊的区域无法确定参数值,不能定量评估区域风险值。本文研究了基于模糊层析分析法的雷电风险评估方法,应用层次分析法提出雷电风险评估三层指标模型,结合模型各风险因子,利用模糊综合算法对区域内雷击风险指数进行计算,得出相对应的雷电风险等级。并通过实例证明,基于模糊层次分析法的区域风险评估在致灾因子的选择上更加灵活,对因素难值难以确定区域的雷电风险评估有较好的适用性。

Scientific and reasonable lightning disaster risk assessment can effectively guide the work of lightning protection and disaster reduction.Traditional lightning risk assessment methods can not determine parameter values for areas with ambiguous factors and can not assess regional risk values quantitatively.This paper studied the method of lightning risk assessment based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and a three-layer index model of lightning risk assessment was proposed by using the analytic hierarchy process.Combined with the risk factors of the model,the fuzzy comprehensive algorithm was used to calculate the lightning risk index in the region,the corresponding lightning risk level was obtained.Finally,it was proved by examples that the regional risk assessment based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was more flexible in the selection of hazard factors,and had better applicability to regional lightning risk assessment where the factor was difficult to determine.