京津冀能源消费结构变化及其影响因素

Energy consumption structure change and its influencing factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Area

基于京津冀面板数据,构建随机效应变系数面板数据模型,对京津冀终端能源消费结构变动及其影响因素进行了研究。结果显示:地区经济增长与京津冀三地的天然气、电力等清洁能源消费之间存在正向关系;常住人口城镇化发展对河北省的煤炭、石油、电力等其他能源消费具有反向影响;第三产业发展降低了北京市的煤炭消费,增加了津、冀的石油、天然气、电力等能源消费,对京津冀地区能源消费结构具有显著优化作用;能源价格对京津冀能源消费结构优化的市场化引导作用不明显。

Based on panel data and by constructing ran- dom - effects variable - coefficient panel data model, this essay researches terminal energy consumption structure change and its influencing factors in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei Region. The re- suits show that there are positive relationships among the regional economic growth and natural gas, electric power and other clean energy consumption of the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei Region ; The urbanization of permanent population makes the coal, oil, elec- tricity and other energy consumption reduce in Hebei Province; The development of tertiary industry decreases the Beijing＇ s coal consumption, increases Tianjin - Hebei＇ s oil, natural gas, pow- er consumption, and optimizes significantly energy consumption structure of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei Region; It is not signifi- cant in market leading role of energy price in optimizing energy consumption structure in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei Region.