人口老龄化对中国产业结构升级的影响研究

Influence of Population Aging on the China's Upgrading of Industrial Structure

由于中国当前的产业结构升级是一个连续的动态调整过程,具有路径依赖的惯性特征,产业结构升级可能存在滞后效应。采用1998—2016年中国省级层面的面板数据,建立动态面板模型并采用广义矩估计方法实证分析人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响,结果表明:无论是差分广义矩估计,还是系统广义矩估计,均显示人口老龄化会显著推动产业结构升级,但国有化程度和外商直接投资水平均不利于产业结构升级;人口老龄化对各区域产业结构升级的影响存在显著差异,人口老龄化仅对西部和东北地区会产生显著的正向影响,但对东部和中部地区的影响不显著,且对东北地区的影响程度大于西部地区。

As China.s current industrial structure upgrade is a continuous dynamic adjustment process,with path-dependent inertial features, there may be lagged effects in the upgrading of the industrialstructure. Choosing provincial panel data in China from 1998 to 2016, a dynamic panel model wasestablished and a generalized moment estimation method was used to empirically analyze the impactof population aging on the upgrading of the industrial structure. The results show that： both thedifference generalized method of moments and the system generalized method of moments indict thatthe population aging will have a significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,but the degree of nationalization and the level of foreign direct investment are not conducive to theupgrading of the industrial structure; there is a significant difference in the impact of populationaging on the upgrading of industrial structure in various regions, the aging of the population willonly have a significant positive impact on the western and northeastern regions, but it will have nosignificant impact on the eastern and central regions, and it will have a greater impact on thenortheast than on the western region.