贸易开放、出口风险含量与中国省级产出波动

Trade Openness,Export Risk Content and China's Output Volatility at the Provincial Level

文章运用中国省级层面数据研究了出口风险含量对产出波动的影响。研究结果表明,出口风险含量的提高增加了产出波动。而且,贸易开放也增加了产出波动。出口风险含量和贸易开放的交叉项回归系数为正,说明对于出口风险含量高的省份来说,扩大贸易开放给产出波动带来的不利影响将会更大。这一研究结论在考虑了关键变量的不同度量方法以及内生性问题之后依然稳健。其政策含义是,中国在享受扩大贸易开放带来的福利的同时,也应注重贸易开放带来的经济波动性的增强,重视出口蕴含的风险含量。

This paper studies the influence of export risk content on China＇s output volatility at the provincial level. The results show that the rise in export risk content and trade openness increase the output volatility. The intersection regression coefficient of export risk content and trade openness is positive, indicating that for the provinces with high export risk content, the negative impact of trade openness expansion on output volatility will be greater. This research result is still robust after considering the different measurement methods and endogenous problems of key variables. Its policy implication is that when enjoying the benefits of trade openness expansion, China should pay attention to the increase of economic volatility brought by trade openness and attach importance to the export risk content.