贸易依存度与中亚五国货币锚

Trade Dependency and Currency Anchors of Five Central Asian Countries

文章利用CL和MF-DFM方法测算了中亚五国的出口、进口贸易依存度。分析发现,中亚五国的出口、进口市场主要依赖俄罗斯、中国和欧元区。将面板数据分为两个时期进行分析发现:(1)前期,美元、欧元和卢布为坚戈的显性货币锚,为其他中亚四国的隐性货币锚,人民币不是中亚五国的货币锚。后期,美元、欧元、人民币和卢布为中亚五国的隐性货币锚;(2)前期,出口贸易依存度对中亚五国货币币值变化的影响显著,出口贸易增长巩固了货币锚地位;对应地,进口贸易依存度的影响不显著,进口贸易增长与货币锚地位关联不大。后期,出口、进口贸易依存度的影响均不显著,出口、进口贸易下滑削弱了其与货币锚的关系。

Based on the methods of CL and MF-DFM, the paper estimates the export and import dependence of five Central Asian Countries. It is found that the export and import markets which the five Central Asian countries mainly depend on are Russia, China and Eurozone. The paper conducts an analysis based on the panel data of two periods and the results indicate that： （1） in the earlier period, the US dollar, euro and ruble are the explicit currency anchors of tenge and the hiddencurrency anchors of the other four Central Asian countries. The RMB is not the currency anchor of the five Central Asian countries. In the later period, the US dollar, euro, RMB and ruble are thehidden currency anchors of the five Central Asian countries; （2） in the earlier period, export dependence has a significant impact on the changes in the currency values of the five Central Asian countries. The of export trade consolidates the status of the dependence is not obvious and the growth currency anchors. However, the influence of import of import trade is not significantly related to the currency anchor status. In the later period, both of export and import dependence exert no significant effect and the decline in export and import trade weakens their relationship with the currency anchor.