不确定需求影响下动态供应链库存策略选择

Inventory Policies Selection for Dynamic Supply Chain Disturbed by Uncertain Demand

为解决受不确定需求干扰下的供应链库存策略选择问题，建立受不确定需求影响的、更符合实际的供应链库存系统动态模型。利用控制理论验证仿真模型的正确性，在此基础上，选取四种随机需求模型，并考虑库存成本和服务水平两个系统性能评价指标进行仿真实验，得到不同提前期不同需求模型下的最优库存策略域。对策略域进行分析，得到具有实践意义的研究结论供管理者参考。

To search appropriate inventory policies when supply chain system is disturbed by uncertain demand, the dynamic model of supply chain considering the impact of uncertain demand was designed. The simulation model was verified by control theory. On the base of correct simulation model, simulation experiments were taken under four uncertain demand patterns. The inventory cost and service level become the performance evaluation indexes at the same time. The best inventory policy regions were obtained under the different conditions of lead time and demand pattern. These policy regions were analyzed and some results having practical values were achieved to provide references for managers.