基于可信性理论的闭环供应链生产计划

Production Planning Model of the Closed-Loop Supply Chain Basedon Credibility Theory

针对生产、库存和拆卸能力有限情况下，考虑可回收旧产品数量、分销商需求量、生产成本、外包成本、单位旧产品拆卸时间、拆卸成本和单位产品生产时间为模糊不确定数，以供应链总成本最小化为目标，采用期望值规划和机会约束规划相结合的形式，建立不确定环境下供应链生产计划模型。基于可信性规划方法，将不确定模型转化为清晰确定形式。最后，设计算例，通过求解给出在供应链总成本最小下，企业各个计划期内的最优生产量、零部件采购量以及制造商和回收中心对物料的运输计划；并分析了可信性水平、再制造率和回收率变动对供应链总成本的影响，为企业制定生产计划提供参考依据。

In view of the limited production, inventory and disassembly capacity, this paper aims at minimizing the total cost of chain. With the consideration of the number of recyclable old products,distributorsr demand, production costs, outsourcing costs, unit old product disassembly time, disassembly costs and unit product production time, the production planning model of supply chain was constructed by combining the expected value planning and the chance constraint planning under the fuzzy environment. Based on the uncertainty theory, the explicit equivalent form of the uncertain model was given based on the credibility theory. Finally, an example was designed and the optimal production quantity, parts purchase amount of enterprise in each planning period and a transportation plan to the materials by manufacturer and recycling center under the minimum total supply chain cost were given. The influence of the change of credibility level, remanufacturing rate and recovery rate on the total cost of supply chain will provide reference for companies to make plans.