考虑经济转型和发展的电力负荷预测研究

Power load forecasting research considering economic transformation and development

根据Hollis B Chenery经济阶段划分理论和中等收入国家陷阱理论,当今我国正处在经济转型发展关键阶段,电力负荷变化与经济增长出现了短暂的背离现象,二者呈现出新的关联关系。文章通过所提出的考虑经济转型指标体系,衡量经济转型的程度;采用灰色关联度分析,选取对电力负荷影响较大的经济转型指标,构建出考虑经济转型指标的电力负荷预测模型。以我国华东地区为例,分析并给出了考虑经济转型因素下华东地区未来年电力负荷预测结果,说明经济转型对负荷增长所带来的影响。

According to Hollis B. Chenery′s theory of economic stage division and the theory of＂middle-income trap＂. China is in the key stage of economic transformation, the change of power load and economic growth have a brief departure from the economic growth and the power load shows a new tremors. This paper proposes a model of power load forecast based on the situation of economic transition. This model is based on the proposed index system of economic transition and its extent, selects the more influential indexes through the grey correlation analysis. Finally, the case study of the East China analyzes the 2020 load prediction results, and reveals the impact of economic transition on the power load.