基于滑动重标极差法的径流时间序列突变研究分析

Study on Runoff Time Series Mutation based on Sliding Rescaled Range Analysis

由于人类活动的不断加剧,环境气候条件的改变导致水资源在时间和空间上的重新组合分配,对于环境变化下的水文序列演变规律研究,并由此带来的水资源问题具有十分重要的现实意义。文章在水文系统动力学结构原理上,基于滑动重标极差突变法进行数值模型建立,结合实际流域水文气象状况,计算得出不同窗口子序列的标度指数来分析河川径流时间序列的突变,进一步反映出序列动力学结构突变前后的分形特性。

Change of the environmental and climate conditions leads to recombination of water resources in time and space due to unreasonable intensive human activities, which is of great significance in studying the law of hydrological series evolution under the environmental changes and issues about water resources brought by this. Based on the principle of dynamic structure of hydrological system, to establish the valuable model with the sliding rescaled range analysis method, combined with the facts of watershed hydrological meteorology, this paper obtained the scale indexes of subsequence in different windows to conduct the analysis for mutation of river runoff time series, so as to reflect further the fractional characteristics before and after dynamic structural mutation.