基于整数规划的终端区管制系统风险控制研究

Improved model for the risk control in the civil aviation industry based on the integer programming in the terminal area

民航运输业的快速发展对空管系统的安全管理水平提出了更高的要求,为了科学地控制终端区管制系统的风险,基于运行分析法识别出终端区管制系统的风险因素,提出将终端区管制系统的风险控制策略进行量化表达,再运用加权欧氏距离聚类分析方法对风险因素聚类分析,建立了基于整数规划的风险控制模型。最后,应用该模型对某终端管制中心的风险进行控制,得到了有效的风险控制方案,验证了该模型的适用性。

This paper attempts to propose an improved model for risk control based on the integer programming in hoping to reduce the air control system risk in the terminal area.That is to say,what we intend to do is to stress more on the qualitative description rather than on the quantitative analysis.As is known,to control the risk of the air control system,the method we used to take so far is merely dependent on the cumulative experience.To change the current situation,it is necessary to identify first of all and then determine the risk factors through the comprehensive running-analysis method so as to gain a scientific control of the risks faced by the air control system in the terminal area.For this goal,we have established a risk set with 15 indicators and then confirmed the corresponding control strategies.In so doing,we have done careful assessment of the cost of the terminal control system and quantified the risk control strategy,so as to transform the qualitative discussion of the risk control into the quantitative one.And,next,we have carefully weighed all the involved risk factors based on the clustering method of Euclid distance to find out the three different risk profiles,thus,defining and settling the different control targets at different levels.Furthermore,we have managed to reduce the risk factors and take into careful account the principle of minimum consumption of the material under the cost constraint,thus finally set up the risk control model,which can help to reduce the overall risk probability.Of course,there remain still some critical factors to be taken into more careful consideration in the entire risk control system,which is needed for us to adopt eventually the model we have worked out to control the risks faced by the terminal control department.In addition,we have also managed to solve the problem with LINGO and gained an optimal risk control scheme for the air control system in the terminal area.Thus,the result of our study proves the effectiveness of the model we have worked out based on the integer programming for the air control system in the terminal area.