一种基于经验分布的大地震复发概率计算方法

A method for computing the recurrence probability of large earthquakes based on empirical distribution

以历史重演原则和构造类比原则为基础,提出了一种基于经验分布的大地震复发概率计算方法,该方法不作任何复发概率分布的强假定,直接通过对大量地震序列数据的蒙特卡罗随机抽样来模拟未来大地震的复发规律,进而统计得到未来一段时间内的大地震发生概率,并以鲜水河断裂带炉霍段和道孚段为实例,利用本文给出的复发概率计算方法得出炉霍段和道孚段未来50年大地震发生概率分别为0.15和0.31。

On the basis of historic recurrence and seismotectonic analogy,we presented a method for calculating earthquake recurrence probability in a period in the future by using empirical distribution function. It adopted the Monte Carlo method to sample from a lot of earthquake sequences to simulate the occurrence of future large earthquakes,so as to achieve statistical large earthquake occurrence probability. Besides,this method never makes assumption that the earthquake recurrence data is according with a certain kind of distribution model.Taking the Luhuo segment and the Daofu segment along the Xianshuihe fault zone as examples,the calculation results showed that the large earthquake occurrence probability in the future 50 years on those two segments are 0.15 and 0.31,respectively.