中国农业生产绩效与碳排放强度关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Agricultural Production Performance and Carbon Emission Intensity in China

在当前资源环境约束趋紧形势下,农业生产绩效的提升是否有益于农业生态的改善?以这一问题为出发点,该文利用中国31个省(区)2000—2014年面板数据,采用Hansen面板门槛模型研究中国农业生产绩效与农业碳排放强度的关系,考察两者间存在的非线性关系。结果表明:农业生产绩效对农业碳排放强度的影响效应呈现显著的双门槛非线性特征。进一步基于空间异质性视角,发现东中西部三大地区农业生产绩效对农业碳排放强度的影响效应具有显著的空间差异性,东部地区农业生产绩效对农业碳排放强度存在着负向非线性影响效应,表现出先梯度降低再增加的走势;中部地区农业生产绩效对农业碳排放强度也存在显著的非线性关系,但表现出先增加、继之降低、再增加的倒"N"型走势;西部地区表现出先增加再梯度降低的趋势。因此,根据农业发展水平和资源禀赋实现差异化的农业碳减排政策,推动农业适度规模经营及集聚发展的专业化水平,推广益生态且经济的农业技术,加大农业生态环保的宣传教育力度,提高农业生产绩效的绿色农业道路是我国实现农业转型的落脚点。

Under the current intensifying situation of resource environment, is the promotion of agricultural production performance beneficial to improvement of agricultural ecology in China？ With this question in mind, we investigated the non-linear relationship between agricultural production performance and carbon emission intensity in China by using 31 provinces＇ （municipalities） panel data from 2000 to 2014 and adopting Hansen Panel Threshold Model. The results show that there is a significant double-threshold non-linear relationship between them. With a further perspective of spatial differentiation, we found that there are significant spatial differences of the effect among east, middle and west regions in China. Specifically in east China there is negative non-linear effect, with the tendency of step-to-step falling and then rising; in middle China there is signigicant non-linear relationship, with an N shape tendency of rising, falling and rising; in west China the tendency is rising and then step-to-step falling. Therefore we put forward that in order to realize agricultural transformation in China we need to draw up differentiated agricultural carbon emission policy based on agricultural development level and resource capacity, to improve agricultural management with suitable scale and the professional level of agglomeration development, to spread ecological and economical agricultural technology, to improve education on agricultural ecological protection and to realize green agricultural development in increasing the agricultural production performance at the same time.