灰色预测在高校学科发展中的应用——以合肥工业大学为例

Application of Grey Prediction on the Development of University Discipline:Case Study of Hefei University of Technology

[目的/意义]高校潜力学科预测研究对推动学科提高ESI全球排名,提升学术影响力,以及促进高校科学布局学科建设具有十分重要的意义。[方法/过程]利用ESI和InCites数据库,以灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的原理和方法为基础,运用MATLAB软件对合肥工业大学潜力学科的部分指标进行预测与分析。[结果/结论 ]灰色预测模型能够对潜力学科进行中长期预测,结果可信度高,并能为高校"双一流"学科建设提供重要参考。

[Purpose/significance] The paper is to study on evaluation and prediction of the potential discipline,which is great significant in promoting the global rankings,improving the academic influence,and motivating scientific layout of university discipline.[Method/process] Based on the principle and method of grey prediction model GM（1,1）,the paper takes data from ESI and In Cites database,and uses MATLAB software to forecast and analyze some indexes of potential disciplines in Hefei University of Technology.[Result/conclusion] The results show that the grey prediction model can predict the potential discipline in medium and long term;the prediction results are high reliability;and it can provide important reference for the construction of ＂first-class＂ discipline in university.