城际铁路列车开行对数与客运量变化的灰色关联分析

Grey Correlation Analysis between Operation Number of Intercity Trains and Change of Passenger Volume

为增加城际铁路列车客运量,改善运输企业经营效益,本文通过分析列车客运量影响因素,利用灰色关联理论建立城际铁路列车开行对数与客运量变化的影响程度模型,通过计算灰色关联度量化分析因素间紧密程度,并从企业运输效益的角度评价关联度结果。最后以珠三角城际铁路为研究案例,实际分析列车开行对数增加对客运量变化的影响,为铁路运输经济效益分析和列车开行方案优化提供科学依据。

In order to increase the passenger volume of intercity railway trains and improve the operating efficiency of transportation enterprises,through the analysis of factors affecting the passenger volume of trains,by means of the Gray Correlation Theory,establishing the model of influence degree between number of intercity trains and change of passenger volume,the degree of closeness between factors is quantified by calculating grey correlation,the result of grey correlation is evaluated from the angle of enterprise transportation benefit. Taking the Pearl River Delta intercity railway as the background,the paper analyzes the influence of train number increase on passenger volume,provides a scientific basis for the economic benefit analysis of railway transportation and optimization of train operation plan.