“全面二孩”政策下农业流动人口二孩生育意愿研究——基于沈阳市的调查分析

Fertility Desire for the Second Child of Agricultural Floating Population under the Policy of “Two Children”:Based on an Investigation in Shenyang

在"全面二孩"政策背景下,通过对沈阳地区农业流动人口进行实地调查,对该地区农业流动人口的"二孩"生育意愿状况及其影响因素进行研究。结果显示,在"全面二孩"政策出台前后,农业流动人口对待"二孩"的态度方面也发生了一些转变,但当前阶段农业流动人口的"二孩"生育意愿并不强烈,较高的养育成本是农业流动人口不愿意生育"二孩"最主要的原因,具有"二孩"生育意愿的农业流动人口生育间隔时间多选择在0~3年。进一步对农业流动人口"二孩"生育意愿的影响因素进行二元Logistic回归分析,发现26~30岁这一年龄段、现居住地为乡镇、流动时间对农业流动人口"二孩"生育意愿呈现正向影响,在沈阳的时间则对其"二孩"生育意愿产生负向的影响。

This paper studies the factors influencing the fertility desire for a second child of the floating population in Shenyang through field investigation,under the background of ＂two child＂policy.The results show that there are some changes in the attitude of the floating population to the fertility desire of the second child before and after the introduction of ＂two children＂policy,but currently the fertility desire for a second child of the floating population is relatively low.The high cost of raising is the main reason why they are unwilling to have two children.Most of the floating population with fertility desire for a second child are ready for an interval of 0-3 years.Using binary logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors of fertility desire for a second child,results showed that among the 26-30 age group who are now living in towns,the flow time has positive influence on their fertility desire for a second child,and that the time in Shenyang has a negative impact on it.