地方公共养老服务体系建设水平及其影响因素研究

A Research on the Construction Level of Local Public Pension Service System and Its Influencing Factors

以我国31个省区市2011—2016年的面板数据为基础,对其进行熵值法处理,并采用广义最小二乘法进行模型异方差和自相关修正,对地方公共养老服务体系建设水平进行研究,得出以下结论:一地土地成交价格越高、纳入城乡最低保障范围内人数越多、老年抚养比越高等,越不利于地方养老服务体系建设水平提升;中央专项拨款、福利彩票公益金提取越多,则越有利于地方政府对养老服务体系建设水平的提升。根据所得结论对地方公共养老服务体系的建设提出包括稳定地价、制定土地优惠政策以及进行前期建设补贴在内的相关建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities in China from 2011 to 2016,this paper deals with the entropy method,and uses the generalized least square method to make the model heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation correction.On this basis,this paper carries out the research on the construction level of local public pension service system and draws the following conclusions： The higher the price of land transaction,the more people in the minimum guarantee range in the urban and rural areas,the higher the elderly dependency ratio,the more unfavorable to the construction of the local system of elderly care service. The more the central special appropriation and the more public welfare fund of the welfare lotteries,the more conducive to the construction of the elderly care service system on the part of the local government. According to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions on the construction of the local public elderly care service system,including the stability of land price,and the formulation of preferential land policy to carry out the prophase construction subsidy.