工业废水排放与经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Relationship Between Industrial Waste-water Emissions and Economic Growth

文章以工业废水排放量和各省人均GDP为度量指标,运用VAR模型,基于我国31个省八大经济区域1997—2015年相关数据,研究了我国各区域工业废水排放与经济增长之间的关系。结果发现：八大经济区中,除东北地区与长江中游地区外,北部沿海地区、东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区、黄河中游地区、西南地区和大西北地区的工业废水排放和经济增长间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,二者间的相互影响存在较为明显的区域异质性,且工业废水排放对经济增长的预测方差贡献度比经济增长对工业废水排放的预测方差贡献度小。

This paper takes industrial waste-water emissions and GDP per capita per province as the measurement index,and uses VAR model to study the relationship between industrial waste-water emission and economic growth in different regions of China according to the related data of eight major economic regions of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2015. The study result shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between waste-water emission and economic growth in other six economic regions（namely the northern coastal areas, the eastern coastal areas, the southern coastal areas, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the southwest and the greater northwest region） except the northeast region and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; the mutual influence between waste-water emission and economic growth has obvious regional heterogeneity, and the variance contribution of industrial waste-water emission to economic growth is smaller than that of economic growth to industrial waste-water emission.