我国货币政策对房地产价格和PPI的非对称影响研究

The Study on the Asymmetric Effects of China's Monetary Policy on Real Estate Prices and PPI

2008年金融危机以来,我国为了应对经济下行趋势,采取了宽松的货币政策。但是,宏观经济虽然企稳回升,带来的后果是房地产价格猛涨,而工业出厂价格却始终低迷。文章运用理论分析和VAR实证分析研究这一非对称效应,得出结论:我国房地产价格对货币政策反应较为灵敏,尤其是积极的货币政策,而PPI对货币政策反应不灵敏,整体呈现非对称效应。结合我国实际,文章提出适度增加土地供给,加快住房租赁市场发展,创新去产能机制,扩大新产能,制定差异化货币政策等促进国民经济平稳运行的建议。

Since the 2008 financial crisis,China has adopted loose monetary policy to cope with the economic downturn.However,although the macro economy has stabilized and recovered,the real estate price has risen sharply,the producer price index has been always depressed.This paper has carried out systematic research on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy,using theoretical analysis and the VAR empirical analysis to study the asymmetric effect.The results show that：China’s real estate price is sensitive to monetary policy,especially to active monetary policy,and PPI is not sensitive to monetary policy;the monetary policy presents asymmetric effects.Relevant suggestions are proposed：we should appropriately increase land supply,develop the housing rental market,innovate the mechanism for reducing production capacity,and expand the new capacity,as well as formulate differentiated monetary policies.