试论全面抗战爆发所引发的金融恐慌

Analysis of the Financial Panic Caused by the Outbreak of Comprehensive Anti-Japanese War

迄今为止,学术界尚无人研究全面抗战爆发所引发的金融恐慌问题。该文在深入研读国民政府财政部档案、时人论述及仔细耙梳《银行周报》、《中央银行月报》报道的基础上,归纳提炼出抗战初期金融恐慌呈现五方面特征：1.债市暴跌;2.汇率贬值;3.拆息飙升;4.存款大量挤提,资本外逃严重;5.上海房地产交易,先萎缩、后繁荣。各地金融影响程度不一。重庆金融几近崩溃,其原因：一是四川金融内生不稳定性所致;二是重庆金融业与工商业、地方财政深度融合带来的后果;三是金融业经营缺乏稳健性;四是战争加剧了重庆金融枯窘程度。最后,论文认为抗战初期金融恐慌程度被削弱,主要在于：法币政策改变了中国货币供给弹性,当全社会出现系统性危机时,国家银行有能力充当最后贷款人,向市场注入流动性,从而有效地化解金融危机;政府与金融界紧密合作,精准施策;上海金融业行业自律管理和30年代初期建立的风险应对机制,成为抗战初期协助政府化解危机的第二道防线;危机时期国家银行成功地发挥了最后贷款人角色。

Present research is lacking on the financial panic caused by the outbreak of AntiJapanese War. This paper cites the archives of the Finance Ministry of the Nationalist Government and their statements from the 1940＇s.Materials were combed carefully from the reports of the Bank Weekly and the Central Bank Monthly.Summed up are five characteristics of the financial panic in the early stage of the Anti-Japanese War：1.The bond market plummeting;2.Devaluation of the exchange rate;3.Soaring interest rates;4.Large deposits run on the banks and capital flight;5.The Shanghai real estate market first shrank and later flourished.However,the degree of financial impact varied from place to place.The Chongqing finance industry nearly collapsed.The reasons are：First,local finance instability in Sichuan;Second,the consequences of integration of Chongqing＇s financial and commercial industries with the local financial infrastructure;Third,the lack of financial industry robustness;Fourth,the war intensified the financial plight in Chongqing.Furthermore,the paper argues that the financial panic was reduced at the beginning of the Anti-Japanese War,because the reform of Fiat Currency changed the elasticity of the money supply in China.The national bank thus had the ability to act as a lender of last resort,injecting liquidity into the market and effectively defusing the financial crisis.The government worked closely with the financial sector to make precise decisions.The self-disciplined Shanghai＇s financial industry and the risk-response mechanism established in the early 1930＇s became the second line of defense to help the government resolve the crisis in the Anti-Japanese War.National bank＇s system had successfully played the role of lender of last resort in times of crisis.