基于随机过程理论的复合绝缘子供应商竞标行为评估方法

Evaluation Method of Composite Insulator Supplier Bidding Behavior Based on the Randomized Procedure

针对复合绝缘子供应商生产特点,基于随机过程理论对复合绝缘子生产过程出现的独立随机状态进行统计,并采用其特高压绝缘子生产驻场监造取得数据进行统计,计算以工程为周期和以时间为周期的单层生产线统计方法,给出周期内正常生产状态和其他状态概率分布。在此基础上利用不同状态分布与正常生产状态的Cascade模型之间的关系,将生产规模进行马尔科夫链分层计算,分层原则是相互状态之间需要独立。根据浴盆曲线的分布规律定义磨合期利润损失和低价中标利润损失,通过其浴盆曲线的失效模式计算得出供应商利润状态,进而评估在其招标活动具备的竞争性质。

According to the production characteristics of composite insulator companies, the independent random states had been calculated in the productions of composite insulator by the statics from the supervision of UHV projects based on stochastic process theory. The method of signal statics chain about the period by the project and time has been brought up and the distribution of normal state and other states of production have been showed. The production capacity has been described by the stratification of Markov chain with the Cascade model of the normal state and other states of production. The stratification rule is that the mutual independence had been regarded as so that the each production capacity of composite insulator companies could been compared. The PL-low price and PL-breaking have been defined by the law of bathtub cm＇ve. The profit status could been calculated by the failure model of bathtub curve and the competitive status could been estimated in the evaluation of hid.