东北地区高学历人口流失及原因——基于吉林大学2013-2017年毕业生就业数据的分析

An Analysis on the Loss and Cause of Highly-educated Talent in Northeast China——Based on the Graduate Employment Data of Jilin University from 2013 to 2017

高学历人口是经济增长、产业升级和技术进步的人力资源基础,而近年来东北地区高学历人口的流失已成为制约东北经济发展的重要因素。本文基于吉林大学2013-2017年毕业生就业数据,采用面板Logit模型和Ordered Logit模型,结合毕业生的个体变量差异和宏观经济形势,分析东北地区高学历人口流失的原因及对专业-行业相关度的影响。研究发现,男性高学历人口流失的程度明显大于女性,东北地区生源的毕业生更愿意留在东北工作,本科生和硕士生更倾向于在非东北地区工作,自然科学专业的毕业生流失状况相对于社会科学专业更为严重,但其所学专业与所在行业的关联性更强,有强烈意愿进入国有单位工作的毕业生大多会留在东北,且专业-行业相关度较高。宏观经济形势对毕业生就业也产生重要影响,本科生和硕士生更倾向于在经济高速发展的地区工作,东北地区的低房价是吸引毕业生留在东北的因素之一。因此,为了更有效地留住高学历人口在东北发展,应规范劳动力市场,政府给予财政支持,对东北国有企业的招聘制度进行有效改革,大力发展东北地区的私营企业和三资企业,积极引进与高学历人口相匹配的高新技术产业,提高毕业生就业的专业-行业相关度。

Highly educated population is the human resource base for economic growth,industrial upgrading and technological progress. In recent years,the loss of highly educated population in Northeast China has become an important factor that restricts economic development in the Northeast. Based on the graduate employment data of Jilin University from 2013 to 2017,this paper uses the panel Logit model and Ordered Logit model to analyze the causes of the loss of highly educated population in Northeast and its impact on the professional-industry relevance,combining the individual variables of graduates and the macroeconomic situation. The study found that males have a higher degree of loss of highly educated population than women. Graduates from Northeast China are more willing to stay in Northeast China. Undergraduates and masters are more likely to work in non-northeast areas. The loss of graduates in the natural sciences is more serious than that of the social sciences,but the links between the majors they study and their industries are stronger. Most of the graduates who strongly desire to work in state-owned units will stay in the northeast,and the professional-industry correlation is relatively high. Graduates tend to be employed in other regions where the economy is developing at a high rate,relatively low housing prices in the northeast region attracted graduates. Therefore,in order to more effectively retain highly educated population in northeastern China,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations such as regulating the labor market,government financial support,enterprise reform and development,and introduction of high-tech industries.