基于多层级耦合协调模型的京津冀工业产业协同发展分析

Analysis on the synergistic development of industrial sectors in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei based on multi-level coupling coordination model

京津冀产业是支撑京津冀协同发展的重要支柱,产业协调直接影响京津冀的协同发展。了解京津冀产业的协调发展程度,针对其不足提出解决对策,进而为京津冀协同发展提供强劲动力。文中以2010-2015年京津冀工业产业为研究对象,采用耦合协调模型,通过选取京津冀三地工业优势产业,设定三个层级的耦合协调评价指标体系,将前一层级耦合协调度作为下一层级指标进行计算,分析相同层级和不同层级之间的相互变化趋势。结果显示:京津冀三地之间存在高位优势产业的重叠;三地在不同层级上均表现出高耦合、低协调状态;津冀是京津冀工业产业协同发展的下限,制约着京津冀产业协同发展的提升。最后文中结合相关结论与三地自身功能定位对京津冀工业产业未来发展提出针对性建议。

The industry is an important pillar to support the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei with its direct influence. Therefore,it is necessary to understand the coordinated development level of the industry and provide some pointed suggestions to facilitate the process. Firstly,we used the coupling coordinated model and recognized the industrial sectors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei among 2010 and 2015 as the research object to select the competitive industries. Then,we set up the multi-level coupling coordination evaluation system,and put the coupling coordination indexes of former as the indicators of next level to calculate the influence index between the levels. The result showed that there were overlapping industries among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The regions had high coupling,but low coordination with different levels. The coordination between Tianjin and Hebei was the floor of the regions that hindered the synergetic process. As the end,some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were given.