影子银行、地方政府债务与经济增长——基于2002-2016年经济数据的分析

Shadow Banking,Local Government Debt and Economic Growth: An Analysis based on 2002-2016 Economic Data

积极财政政策的实施使我国地方政府积累了一定的债务规模,而与隐性债务相关的影子银行监管相对欠缺,在一定程度上也增加了地方政府的债务风险。基于2002-2016年的相关经济数据,本文通过建立VAR模型分析影子银行、地方政府债务和经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:影子银行、地方政府债务和经济增长三者之间存在着长期均衡的关系,经济增长在促进影子银行规模和地方政府债务规模方面作用都十分显著;地方政府债务明显推动了经济增长和影子银行规模,但影子银行在促进经济增长和地方政府债务规模方面作用有限。因此,应重视经济增长效率,调控地方政府隐性债务规模,防范影子银行风险。

The implementation of positive fiscal policy makes local governments accumulate a certain amount of debt,while the shadow banking supervision related to implicit debt is relatively inadequate to a certain extent,increasing the debt risk of local governments. Based on the relevant economic data from 2002 to 2016,this paper establishes a VAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship among shadow banks,local government debt and economic growth. Research results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among shadow banks,local government debt and economic growth,and economic growth plays a significant role in promoting the size of shadow banks and local government debt;local government debt can significantly promote economic growth and the size of shadow banks,but shadow banks will play a limited role in promoting economic growth and the size of local government debt. Therefore,we should pay attention to the efficiency of economic growth,regulate the scale of implicit debt of local governments,and guard against shadow banking risks.