宏观经济环境与我国上市公司的目标债务结构——基于存量调整模型的实证研究

Macroeconomic Environment and Target Debt Structure Decision of Listed Companies: An Empirical Study based on Stock Adjustment Model

企业的高杠杆率已成为制约当前我国经济发展的突出问题,如何相机调整债务结构决策有效稳定、降低企业杠杆率成为现实亟待解决的重要问题。基于债务结构调整模型,本文实证分析宏观经济环境对公司债务结构决策的影响,发现上市公司在经济下行期目标债务期限结构较短、目标债务工具结构较高,且非国有公司比国有公司更倾向于商业信用融资;公司债务结构调整速度具有非对称性,在经济上行期时债务结构调整至目标水平的速度更快。上述结论有利于企业把握宏观经济发展规律,适时做出调整债务结构的决策,可为其应对宏观经济不利冲击提供参考。

The high leverage ratio of enterprises has become a prominent problem that restricts the economic development of our country. How to effectively adjust the debt structure decision to stabilize and reduce leverage ratio of enterprises has become an urgent issue. Based on debt structure adjustment model,this paper empirically studies the impact of macroeconomic environment on corporate debt structure decision-making. The results show that listed companies have shorter target debt maturity structure and higher target debt instrument structure in the economic downturn,also,non-state companies prefer to adopt commercial credit financing than state-owned companies; the speed of corporate debt restructuring is asymmetric,its debt structure is adjusted to target levels at a faster rate in the economic upside. Means of this finding is that enterprises can grasp the law of macroeconomic development,adjust the debt structure decision in time,and provide reference for coping with adverse macroeconomic impact.