基于灰色理论的产业结构与物流需求关系实证研究

Empirical Study on Relationship between Industrial Structure and Logistics Demand Based on Grey Theory

产业结构是影响物流需求的重要因素之一,采用灰色关联分析方法,选取广西省货运量、货运周转量、三次产业值、区域经济总产值(GDP)及进出口贸易额作为计量指标,计算广西省产业结构与物流需求的灰色关联系数并排序。结果表明,选取指标与物流需求关联强度由强至弱依次为:第一产业、GDP、第三产业、第二产业、进出口贸易。明确各因素对物流需求影响的程度大小,能够为政府制定政策时提供依据,从而使区域经济与物流协调、稳步、快速发展。

In this paper, using gray correlation analysis, and with the freight volume, freight turnover, tertiary industry production,regional GDP and import/export volume of Guangxi as the indexes, we calculated the gray correlation coefficient between the industrial structure of the region and its logistics demand. The results showed that the correlation strength between the selected indexes and the logistics demand was in the following descending order： primary industry, GDP, tertiary industry, secondary industry, import/export trade.