共享单车经济的量化分析——以宁波为例

The Quantitative Analysis of the Shared Bicycle Economy——Taking Ningbo city as an example

以宁波为例,对共享单车经济进行量化分析.首先,通过网络爬虫抓取宁波市共享单车位置数据,并对数据进行预处理.之后,建立了空间分布特征和品牌分布特征模型,描述共享单车的地区分布情况.并且,我们建立了供需现状,市场竞争状况,发展趋势三个指标,综合分析共享单车品牌的发展状态.此外,考虑到ofo与mobike占有绝大部分市场,引入了改进吉诺模型,预测ofo,mobike两家共享单车公司的动态博弈过程.最终,以获得的宁波市数据为例,给出模型的算例分析.研究成果可为共享经济的分析提供理论借鉴.

In this paper, we use Ningbo city as an example to make the quantitative analysis of the shared bicycle economy. Firstly, we gain and pre-process the location data of shared bicycles in Ningbo city. Then, we propose three indicators which are supply-demand status, competition status and development trend to analyze the development status of shared bicycle brand comprehensively. Moreover, considering that ofo and mobike company occupy most of the market, this paper introduces and improves the classical Cournot model to and predicts the dynamic game of decision between ofo and mobike. An example analysis about Ningbo city is also given at last. Our research can provide a theoretical reference for the analysis of shared economy.