基于交通灯方法的小黄鱼资源承载力诊断与评价

Resource carrying capacity diagnosis and evaluation of small yellow croaker based on traffic light approach

交通灯方法是用来诊断并评价渔业种群的资源现状和风险水平的技术程序,有助于资源管理和养护。本文介绍了交通灯方法的构建过程,应用模糊逻辑处理阈值和观测值的不确定性问题,将交通灯中的红灯、黄灯和绿灯定义为超载、临界超载和可载。以2000年~2015年东海小黄鱼种群为示例对象,从表征资源禀赋的丰度和生产力两个属性特征进行分析,探讨了小黄鱼种群补充量、亲体量和开捕期资源丰度的年际变化和承载状态,并集成为复合交通灯体系,以红灯比例超过30%为"严重"强度划分标准。各指标分析结果表明,2005年和2011年,补充量的红灯比例超过30%,呈严重超载状态;亲体量严重超载年份为2002年、2003年和2012年;开捕期资源丰度严重超载年份为2002~2004、2006年。对各指标评价结果集成为复合交通灯,12个年份存在超载状态,2002年~2004年、2006年为严重超载;9个年份出现可载状态;临界超载在各年份均有出现,且占据主导地位,变化幅度在29.14%~91.56%。本文分析方法和结果可以丰富渔业资源承载力评价体系,并为渔业资源管理提供理论参考。

The traffic light approach as a technical procedure was first developed for evaluating the status and level of risk faced by a fish population. It has also facilitated stock management and conservation. This paper introduced the construction procedure of traffic light approach,and applied fuzzy logic to deal with the uncertainty of boundaries and observation values. Red,yellow and green lights in traffic lights were defined as overload,critical overload and loadable respectively. Taking the stock of small yellow croaker from 2000 ~ 2015 in East China Sea as an example,the inter-annual variation and carrying state of small yellow croaker were explored in terms of the characteristics of abundance and productivity,and these indicators were integrated into traffic light system,more than 30% red within one year was classified as the serious overload. The results showed that the serious overload years for recruitment was in 2005 and2011,for spawning stock was in 2002,2003 and 2012,and for the abundance at the beginning season was in 2002 ~2004 and 2006. According to the integrated traffic light index,there were 12 years existed overload states during 2000~ 2015,and the years which had serious overload states was 2002,2003,2004 and 2006. Loadable states had occurredin 9 years; Critical overload state was the dominant state which had appeared in every year,and the proportion in every year ranged from 29. 14% to 91. 56%. The analysis method and results can enrich the evaluation system of fishery resources carrying capacity and provide theoretical reference for fishery resources management.