贵州省直接生活能源碳排放及影响因素分析

Analysis of Carbon Emission from Direct Household Energy Consumption in Guizhou Province and Its Influencing Factors

依据贵州省2000-2014年居民直接生活能源消费数据,运用碳排放系数测算贵州省居民直接生活用能碳排放量,并进行统计分析。继而采用LMDI分解法定量分析能源消费结构、能源消费强度、居民消费水平、人口规模4个因素对贵州省居民直接生活用能碳排放增量的影响,并对比分析城镇和农村影响因素的差异。结果表明:居民消费水平是拉动贵州居民生活用能碳排放增长的决定性因素;生活能源强度是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素,能源消费结构和人口规模的变动也对碳排放增长具有负向影响,但作用强度相对较小。从城乡来看,居民消费水平效应显著增加了城镇居民直接碳排放,能源消费强度效应对农村居民直接碳排放抑制作用最明显。

Based on the data（from 2000 to 2014） of direct household energy consumption in Guizhou Province, the amount of carbon emission from which were estimated by use of carbon emission coefficient method, and the relative statistical analysis was carried out as well. In addition, using the LMDI（logarithmic mean divisia） method, the paper analyzed four factors, i.e., energy consumption structure, energy consumption intensity, residents＇ consumption level and population size, which impacted the increment of carbon emission from direct household energy consumption in Guizhou Province, and compared the differences of carbon emission between urban and rural areas. The analysis suggested that residents＇ consumption level was the decisive factor that enhanced carbon emission of household energy consumption in Guizhou, while the energy consumption intensity was the main factor that subdued carbon emissions; furthermore, the energy consumption structure and population size negatively affected the increase of carbon emission but the effects was relatively weak. From the perspective of urban and rural areas, the consumption level of urban residents had notably positive impacts on carbon emission; on the other hand, it was evident that the energy consumption intensity in rural area negatively affected carbon emission.