人口发展质量定量分析与现实价值:1978—2016

Quantitative Analysis of Population Development Quality and its Practical Value:1978—2016

通过对1978—2016年中国人口发展质量的数据搜集、指标体系建立和测评分析,得出中国人口发展质量指数以及人口自身发展指数、人口与经济社会发展指数和人口与资源环境发展指数三项分指数。研究结果表明,过去39年间中国人口发展质量指数呈中低速起步、停滞增长、中低速增长和高速增长四个阶段。"三项"分指数中,人口自身发展指数起点高,但增长缓慢,由正向拉动转变为滞后发展;人口与经济社会发展指数起点低、增速最快、增长态势最好,人口整体发展主要由该指数拉动;人口与资源环境发展指数起点高、波动最大,呈先下降后快速上升态势,长期处于其他两项指数中间水平,说明过去39年间中国经济发展方式转变显著提高人口与资源环境发展质量和整体人口发展质量。

Through the data collection, establishment of index system and evaluation on the quality of China＇s population development from 1978 to 2016 ＇ the index of China＇s population de velopment quality and three partial indicators are obtained： index of population self development, index of population and economic and social development, and index of population and resources and environmental development. The study shows that index of China＇s population development quality has experienced four stages： slow start, stagnant growth, medium and low growth, and high growth. As for the three partial indicators, index of population self development has a high starting point, but its growth is low and has experienced from positive pull to lagging develop ment. Index of population and economic and social development has a low starting point with the fastest growth rate and the best growth trend, by which the overall population development is mainly driven. Index of population and resources and environmental development has a high start ing point and the largest fluctuation, showing a downward trend first and then a rapid upward trend, and has been in the middle of the other two indexes for a long time. It shows that the transformation of China＇s economic development pattern in the past 39 years has significantly im proved the quality of population, resources and environmental development and the overall quality of population development.